Doha, January 04 (QNA) - The recent developments unfolded in Venezuela, notably the capture of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife and their subsequent transfer to New York following a US military operation, marked a new test for the sensitivity of global energy markets toward countries that possess gigantic oil wealth, as well as the impact of these developments on the global energy market.

As such, these markets haven't reacted to these developments as merely pure political incidents, but rather as a groundwork for envisioning the future ability to supply energy.

Economist Dr. Abdullah Al Khater told Qatar News Agency (QNA) that these incidents will have a very limited impact on the global oil markets connected to the incidents per se, clarifying that energy prices rapidly align with the new reality.

The real factor influencing supply and demand in global oil markets is the trend of economic growth in the coming period, as Venezuela's energy sector will require time to restructure and to determine its capacity to supply global markets, Dr. Al Khater explained.

Associate Professor and Vice Dean for Academic and Quality Affairs, College of Business, Al‑alBayt University, Jordan, Dr. Omar Khlaif Gharaibeh affirmed to QNA that Venezuela represents a unique case in the global oil economy, combining the world's largest proven oil reserves with one of the lowest levels of actual utilization of these reserves.

Venezuela, which holds around 303 billion barrels, approximately 20 percent of global reserves, is no longer treated in the markets as a productive force capable of directly influencing the balance of supply and demand, but rather is classified as a long-term geopolitical risk factor, Dr. Gharaibeh recalled.

He added that Venezuela's return to the forefront of the oil scene at this critical moment comes amid a complex global environment: uneven economic slowdown across major economies, projections of supply surplus in the years ahead, and structural shifts in global energy demand.

In this case, the key question that arises isn't the volume of Venezuelan energy reserves, but essentially the time and cost required to convert this amount into real exportable barrels, as well as the extent to which the political and economic system in Caracas can provide the conditions for stability and investment.

The bet on the fast return of Venezuelan energy production is quite unrealistic, since elevating production to roughly two million barrels daily could require approximately USD 58 billion in investments, alongside a timeframe ranging between two and five years, Dr. Gharaibeh noted.

Dr. Gharaibeh further noted that returning to historical peak levels may require a full decade of sustained investments in infrastructure and advanced technologies, alongside deep institutional reforms.

From this perspective, assessing the impact of recent developments on the oil market requires moving beyond quick impressions and focusing on scenario analyses that link politics, investment, and energy, Dr. Gharaibeh highlighted.

He indicated that Venezuela's experience over the past two decades shows that, no matter how abundant its reserves, oil cannot become a market force without effective institutions, sound infrastructure, and stable international partnerships.

The takeaways, he says, are that Venezuela's future can be predicted in three scenarios. The first one is persistent political turmoil, with unchangeable reserves being a behemoth relative to realistic supplies, while the second scenario involves eventual recovery once the situation is stabilized, coupled with the mitigation of sanctions and the rollout of international firms.

This could raise production to between 2 and 3 million barrels per day within 5-7 years, he suggested.

The third scenario envisions lasting political stability, international partnerships, and massive investments that would allow Venezuela to return to production levels of around 3 million barrels per day or more in the medium term, Gharaibeh concluded.

He noted that the oil market remains sensitive to geopolitical shocks, but its true impact is not measured by the size of reserves, rather by a country's ability to convert them into sustainable production.

In Venezuela's case, Gharaibeh adds, the country remains a risk factor more than a balancing force in the short term, with long-term investment opportunities contingent on the challenges it faces. (QNA)