IMF Predicts UK Economy Will Be Most Affected by Middle East War
London, April 14 (QNA) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the United Kingdom will be the most affected by the energy shock resulting from a war with Iran, compared to other advanced economies worldwide.
In its latest report, "World Economic Outlook," the IMF lowered its forecast for UK economic growth this year to 0.8 percent, compared to the 1.3 percent it projected in January before the outbreak of war between the US and Iran.
The IMF indicated that this downward revision is due to the war, the slower pace of interest rate cuts, and the expectation that the impact of rising energy prices will continue into next year.
The IMF also warned that the war could derail the global economy, noting that a prolonged conflict could put the world at risk of recession.
Despite this, the IMF expects the UK economy to recover later, becoming the fastest-growing economy in Europe next year among the G7 countries, albeit at a slower growth rate of 1.3 percent.
The IMF explained that inflation in the UK could rise "temporarily" this year to nearly 4 percent before returning to the Bank of England's target of 2 percent by the end of 2027, as the impact of higher energy prices wanes and wage growth slows due to a weak labor market.
Meanwhile, data released Tuesday by the Automobile Club of Britain (ACB) indicates that the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran has helped lower crude oil prices from their recent highs, which in turn has led to lower fuel costs in wholesale markets.
The ACB suggests that prices could begin to fall within the next two weeks.
However, prices remain significantly higher than before the war. Gasoline is currently selling for an average of just over 158 pence per liter, compared to 133 pence in late February, while diesel has risen from 142 pence per liter to 192 pence.
Simon Williams, head of policy at the Automobile Club, said: "Wholesale fuel costs are now significantly lower than at the start of the month, so we expect prices at the pump to start falling." He added: "In the current situation, we anticipate petrol and diesel prices to drop by several pence per liter over the next week or so."
He continued: "It will be interesting to see if this happens as the data suggests. We certainly hope so, as drivers need some relief at the pumps." (QNA)
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