Doha, September 16 (QNA) - European gas markets are witnessing a sharp surge in prices, with trading levels reaching nearly three times their previous figures. This development revives concerns regarding supply security and energy costs across the continent. The rise is driven by a combination of factors, including weather fluctuations, inventory levels, and industrial demand trends, alongside geopolitical developments and global supply disruptions.

European gas markets anticipate continued price volatility, given the market's sensitivity to developments regarding supply, demand, inventories, and weather, amidst warnings about the impact of rising prices on electricity costs, production expenses, and energy-intensive industries.

Two experts, speaking exclusively to Qatar News Agency (QNA), observed that the rise in gas prices is not driven by a single factor, rather, it reflects the European market's sensitivity to any changes in supply volumes or demand forecasts. They explained that the limited availability of immediate alternatives to gas, particularly during periods of peak consumption, can accelerate price movements.

The two experts warned that sustained high prices could drive up electricity and production costs and place pressure on energy-intensive industries, while some of this increase might be passed on to consumers. They also emphasized that price trends remain linked to developments regarding supplies, inventories, and weather conditions in the coming period, making the European market highly sensitive to any sudden developments.

Eng. Nasser Jaham Al Kuwari, an oil and gas expert, told QNA that the price of gas in Europe has nearly tripled compared to levels seen at the start of 2026. The Dutch TTF gas index, the benchmark for the European market, surged from around €26.5 to over €79 per megawatt-hour in early September. However, the figure alone does not explain the crisis, he added, noting that what Europe is paying today is not merely the price of the gas being consumed, but the cost of securing winter supplies in a global market that has lost much of its flexibility.

Eng. Al Kuwari highlighted the pressure resulting from disruptions in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, caused by interrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to certain production facilities in the region. Even European countries that do not rely directly on Gulf gas are affected, a shipment that fails to reach Asia or Europe must be replaced from another source, and buyers compete for the same pool of alternative cargoes. Therefore, the supply shock transmits from a maritime strait to gas prices in Europe.

Regarding the outlook for the coming period, Eng. Al Kuwari noted that the answer depends on several variables. If stalled shipments resume, storage levels improve, and the winter proves mild, the risk premium currently embedded in prices is likely to decline. However, if the supply recovery is sluggish, prices will remain high and volatile. The most challenging scenario would be a combination of supply disruptions and a cold winter, forcing Europe to compete more aggressively for LNG shipments.

As for Qatar, Eng. Al Kuwari emphasized that the value of gas is not measured solely by the volume of reserves, but by the ability to produce, ship, and deliver it to customers on schedule. However, rising European prices do not automatically translate into a proportional increase in exporters' revenues, the outcome depends on the volume of available shipments, contract terms, and the costs associated with meeting obligations during supply chain disruptions.

Concluding his statements to QNA, Eng. Al Kuwari said that the most important lesson is that European energy security has become closely linked to navigation security and the flexibility of the global liquefied gas market. Therefore, the winter price will not be determined at European storage stations alone, but also at production facilities, shipping routes, and the ability of buyers and producers to deal with upcoming shocks.

For his part, financial expert Abdulla Al Raisi said that the crisis of rising gas prices in Europe has become a major concern for European citizens, and there is opportunity for further price increases in the future as a result of geopolitical tensions and the ongoing war between the US and Iran in the Arabian Gulf, which caused a severe shortage in gas supplies to Europe, and increased gas exports to Asia.

He said in similar statements to Qatar News Agency (QNA) that Europe's attempt to phase out Russian oil by the year 2027 will be challenging with the severe shortages and price increases without considering other practical solutions to face this crisis, given that Europe might have a severe and harsh winter.

Al Raisi also predicted the slowing of gas price increases as well as economic growth, which raises the pressures on European governments to find solutions to lower the ghost of inflation like consumption rationalization campaigns, finding gas alternatives, and to seriously strive to contribute to resolving the war in the Gulf, so that all pathways of the Strait of Hormuz may open, life may return to how it was before the war on Europe, and to bear the responsibility of participating and contributing to solving this fabricated crisis.

Al Raisi noted that the European Central Bank started taking the energy shock into consideration more seriously in its predictions. According to the September 2026 forecasts, the Bank expects inflation in the Eurozone to reach 3% during 2026, compared to 2.1% in 2025. It is projected to reach approximately 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2026 due to rising energy prices, before gradually declining later on. The Bank also forecasts economic growth of 0.9% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027.

Al Raisi warned that the continued rise in gas prices over a prolonged period could create what may be described as a “double shock” to the European economy, consisting of higher inflation on the one hand and slower economic activity on the other. Rising energy costs place pressure on businesses and households, while higher inflation reduces purchasing power and may require monetary policy to keep interest rates at elevated levels for a longer period.

In Al Raisi's concluding statements to QNA, he pointed out that the European Central Bank itself has developed various scenarios for the evolution of gas prices. Under the baseline scenario, gas prices are projected to reach around €60/MWh in the final quarter of 2026. The adverse scenario assumes prices of approximately €77, while the severe scenario projects prices of about €130/MWh. Under the severe scenario, the Bank expects euro area growth to slow to 0.4% in 2027, while inflation could reach 5.4% in the same year. (QNA)