Doha, April 08 (QNA) - Global markets reacted quickly to the announced two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, with oil prices falling, gold and stock prices rising, and the dollar weakening in Asian trading, raising hopes for a recovery in energy supplies, particularly those related to the Strait of Hormuz.

While statements supporting the ceasefire continue to be issued, indicators confirm that this announcement will have an effective impact on the world and the Middle East region. In their remarks to Qatar News Agency (QNA), a number of experts and economic analysts confirmed that the direct and rapid repercussions of the results of the American-Iranian agreement appeared clearly since the early hours of Wednesday morning with the decline in oil prices in international markets, the improvement in financial transactions in most stock exchanges, as well as the recovery of the business climate, pressure on supply chains and a decrease in insurance costs.

Analysts agree that, in anticipation of the start of the negotiations between Washington and Tehran scheduled for next Friday, and the conditional ceasefire being linked to a specific and short-term timeframe, the impact of the agreement on the global economy and the Gulf region was clear and rapid, according to market and price indicators. They point out that the ceasefire and the continuation of negotiations represent another step that lays the foundation for a permanent peace agreement in the world and the region, and will have a positive impact on the flow of energy, food, and investment supplies, and will provide a real opportunity for greater prosperity and flourishing.

In this context, economist and oil and energy expert Dr. Amer Al Shoubaki said that global markets moved, after the announcement of the truce, within hours from pricing in a dangerous scenario, which is the complete collapse and the long extension of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, to pricing in a fragile truce that is liable to break at any moment. He noted that the markets received this truce with relief, as the markets had previously feared an actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the main economic artery through which a fifth of the world's oil and gas trade passes.

He added that when the truce was announced, it was natural for oil to quickly fall below USD 100, with Brent crude declining by about 13 to 16 percent and US crude by about 15 percent, and a strong rise in global stocks with cautious investor sentiment, which is a result of a lack of complete confidence, indicating that the paper market has calmed down, but the real market has not yet calmed down. He also noted the decline in oil prices to below USD 100 a barrel after Trump announced his agreement to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, as Brent crude recorded a decline of USD 14.84, or 13.6 percent, to reach a level of USD 94.43 a barrel, and the price of US West Texas Intermediate crude fell by USD 16.13, or 14.3 percent, to reach a level of USD 96.82 a barrel.

The energy expert pointed out that there are about 130 million barrels of crude oil and 46 million barrels of refined fuel stuck on nearly 200 tankers, in addition to 1.3 million tons of liquefied natural gas waiting to pass through the strait. He considered these to be huge numbers and that bringing them out to the markets means a change, but it does not mean that things have returned to normal because bringing out these quantities is one thing and restoring confidence to shipping and insurance companies is something else entirely.

He also pointed out that the situation was more sensitive in Asia because Asian countries depend on the producing countries in the Middle East for their energy resources, with about 60 percent of their oil imports and 80 percent of their natural gas imports. He noted that some countries were forced during the crisis to reduce their industrial production, and even resort to rationing fuel.

He believes that releasing these shipments will certainly have a positive impact on Asian countries, but it will not restore stability immediately. He considers that what is more important is the reluctance of the producers themselves to restart the oil fields in the Middle East, especially since restarting is not a quick decision, but rather requires at least weeks and perhaps months for some of the facilities that were damaged.

Dr. Al Shoubaki told QNA that the worst-case scenario is to produce but not be able to export. This explains a very important paradox: despite the drop in prices, the actual market is still limited and suffers from a real shortage. He pointed out that the oil and gas relief was more apparent, as Europe got rid of some of the pressures caused by the shortage of liquefied natural gas supplies after prices fell by about 20 percent. This does not obscure the fact that the market is still waiting for the opinion of Qatar Energy, the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, whose export capacity to global markets was taken out by about 17 percent due to the five-week war.

He pointed out that even if things calm down, restarting the facilities is not a simple process and requires at least a month in the best-case scenario, saying that was is seen now is pricing in hopes of a long truce and not a real restoration of balance in the markets, because the effects do not stop at oil and gas, but even helium products in Qatar, which also represent a third of global supplies. Also, the disruption of gas raised fertilizer prices sharply to 50 percent because the region is linked to the production of about 15 percent of the ammonia trade. Therefore, a rapid reflection is seen, for example, on food grain prices.

From an economic perspective of the financial sector, the economist pointed out that central banks will not easily change their course because geopolitical risk has become the primary factor affecting the global economy. In contrast, the Gulf countries entered this crisis from a position of strength, with their banks possessing huge liquidity and provisions exceeding hundreds of billions, which boosted confidence in the financial markets. He added that ultimately to summarize what is happening, he believes it is not the end of the crisis as much as it is a short window of time through which the market can test whether we are facing the beginning of a real calming down or a pause before a new wave of rising risks and prices.

Dr. Al Shoubaki concluded his statement to QNA by emphasizing that the course of negotiations between the warring parties during the next two weeks will determine the shape of the global economy in the coming months, as well as the extent of the damage inflicted on many oil facilities and gas fields in the Gulf countries, whether in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, or Iraq. All of these indicators make the picture unclear regarding the timeframe required to repair these facilities and restore full production. The supply chain also needs a considerable amount of time, which may extend to months. However, this does not diminish the fact that the two-week truce remains a small window that gives more hope for reaching sustainable solutions to the oil and gas crisis and the regular energy supply chains.

Abdullah Al Raisi,an economic analyst, told QNA that the war has created enormous pressures on growth and development worldwide, directly affecting budget deficits, trade flows, and infrastructure, as well as causing significant human casualties. He emphasized that economic activity across sectors and regions has been disrupted, impacting global markets.

Al Raisi said the ceasefire agreement represents a first step toward restoring economic stability, though recovery will require patience and sustained effort. He urged policymakers to recognize the scale of wartime impacts and to take measures—even minimal agreements—to return daily life and business activities to normal.

Economic expert Dr. Ahmed Aql told QNA that geopolitical pressures have affected most economies in the region. Some countries, including Qatar, managed to mitigate the impact thanks to proactive planning, strategic decisions, diversified income sources, and development of local industries.

Dr. Aql highlighted that the ceasefire's announcement has already had immediate positive effects on financial and commodity markets. Oil prices dropped 10–16 percent in a single day, while stock markets, including the Qatar Stock Exchange, rebounded and gold prices recovered. He also noted positive movements in global indices, such as the German DAX, which rose around 5 percent.

He stressed that uncertainty over the region's geopolitical outlook had previously prompted capital to seek stability, while disruptions at strategic sites, particularly near the Strait of Hormuz, had temporarily reduced production and trade. The positive ceasefire news, however, is encouraging the gradual return of economic activity.

Dr. Aql said that Qatar remains an attractive investment destination due to its strong economic growth, favorable investment laws, and plans to increase gas production by 40–50 percent by 2027. He noted that domestic production of essential goods, such as milk and cheese, has provided a vital safety net during the crisis, underlining the importance of food security.

Looking ahead, Dr. Aql predicted that the Qatari stock market could rise above 11,200–11,400 points if the region maintains stability. He added that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is critical to restoring global trade and supply chains, ensuring resources for producers and consumers alike. This, in turn, will support global energy and industrial markets, including aluminium, and help economies gradually return to normal activity levels. (QNA)